- Could see inflation come in not as strong as expected, if that's the case it would suggest cutting sooner
- We could see the labor market weakening and that would also suggest cutting sooner
- If we see labor market stronger, it would suggest cutting later
- A significant majority of policymakers think it will be appropriate to reduce rates later this year
- Projections are subject to great uncertainty
- Too early to know economic implications of the Middle East
- Reason we are not cutting rates is that forecast in and out of Fed expect a meaningful increase in inflation this year
There is nothing market moving so far.
More:
- We don't see weakness in the labor market, that would matter but we don't see it
- As long as economy is strong we can take a little bit of a pause here
- It's too soon to say anything on supply chains, we're watching that
- We don't see weakness in the labor market
- If not for our forecast on inflation, we could have continued cutting
- Supply chains really matter, it's too soon to say on that
- It's difficult to decide when to move
- Says uncertainty about size and potential potential persistence of inflation from tariffs is reason not to cut rates
Even more:
- We are getting closer to price stability, not quite there yet.
- Once get there, can react more strongly to downturns in the economy.
- Talk to a lot of lawmakers privately that says the Fed is doing the right thing rates.
- Asset prices high, but leverage in a particularly high.
- Overall financial stability conditions not in a place where we worry a lot.
