Reuters polling on what's expected from the European Central Bank at its September 14 meeting:
- 39 of 69 analysts/economists say the ECB will leave its Deposit Rate unchanged at 3.75%
- 30 said the ECB will hike it by 25bps to 4.00%
This compares with market p[pricing of around 65% for an on-hold decision at this meeting.
Further out:
- 36 of 69 forecast the key interest rate to end the year at 3.75%
- 33 said 4.00%
Some of the remarks from the Reuters piece:
- "Officially, we are expecting the ECB will stay on the sidelines for the rest of the year, but right now, it is almost like a 50-50 coin toss," said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, adding there was not much clarity from the inflation data since the ECB last met. "We were all excited looking for the next couple of inflation reports and always thinking for sure they are going to tell us what they (policymakers) are going to be doing in September, but both inflation reports have been of zero help."
- "The real economy is weaker than expected and inflation is retreating as expected. Hence, the ECB can stay on hold and watch," said Luca Mezzomo, head of macroeconomic analysis at Intesa Sanpaolo. "If it is just a soft spot, they will raise the key rates again. If instead it is the beginning of a deeper and more persistent slowdown, there will be no more hikes."
Powell Ueda Lagarde
In contrast, Ueda doesn't hike. He struts.
