It's a coin flip on whether the ECB easing cycle is over.
Market pricing for mid-2026 before the ECB press conference was at about 60% but it's drifted down to just below 50% after Lagarde took a upbeat tone around growth. The July 2026 meeting is most likely for another cut at the moment with 12.2 bps of easing priced in. For the remainder of this year, the odds of a cut fell to 24% from 40% pre-decision.
With that the euro also climbed about 45 pips from pre-ECB levels. It initially fell but quickly recovered and climbed when Lagarde shifted the balance of growth risks to neutral from negative.
