Nomura bucks consensus, sees Fed holding steady in December
Nomura now expects the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at its December 9–10 meeting, arguing that recent indicators still point to a resilient labour market despite the government shutdown’s disruption to official data releases.
In a note to clients, the bank said Chair Jerome Powell’s unexpectedly hawkish tone at the October press conference reinforced its view that the Fed is likely to pause after two consecutive cuts. Nomura remains one of the few major institutions calling for no change in December, diverging from market pricing that continues to favour another quarter-point reduction.
The firm added that a pause could reignite political pressure on the central bank, with President Trump expected to criticise the decision as premature restraint on growth heading into an election year.
