The New York Fed Nowcast of Q1 GDP growth rose to 2.14% from 2.12% last week.
In their own words:
- The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2024:Q1 stands at 2.1%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.1, 3.2] and the 68% interval at [0.6, 3.6]. The Staff Nowcast stands at 2.5% for 2024:Q2.
- News from this week’s data releases left the 2024:Q1 and 2024:Q2 estimates largely unchanged.
- A positive surprise from nonfarm payroll employment data was offset by a negative impact from data revisions for both quarters
Below is a chart of the estimates going back to early December along with a table of the influences from the data this week
New York Fed nowcast of GDP growth
