- The Fed has great sources of information even with the government shutdown.
- Next year is a long way off in terms of monetary policy.
- So far seen both labor supply and demand for workers declining at about the same pace.
- The breakeven rate for monthly jobs is lower than it was and hard to assess right now.
- Suspect the breakeven rate is lower than 75K per month.
- Would not want to step on a productivity boom
- the Fed should explore what productivity growth can be.
- Muted tariff inflation so far is a testament to business creativity in managing costs.
- Do not see the type of demand conditions that would turn a series of supply shocks into persistent inflation.
- The Fed will have to fields way to the neutral rate.
- Growth right now is strong, but hard to see how that is sustained.
- If inflation shows a burst the Fed would have to react
- Market expectations are generally more reliable than household surveys on inflation expectations.
More dovish comments from Chicago Fed Pres. Paulson
