- For me, a 75 bps hike in July gets us to neutral
- For me, neutral is 2-2.25%
- You don't want to overdo rate hikes
- I think it is plausible that growth goes below the longer-run average but doesn't go negative
- A large amount of excess savings still in US bank accounts
- It's inconceivable to have a recession with unemployment rate at 3.6%
These are not the kinds of comments you'd expect from a big-time hawk after a hot inflation report.
US 2 -year yields have now completely reversed:
More:
- Market pricing is 'getting ahead of themselves' with 100 bps pricing for July
- Yesterday's inflation number was not a big surprise
- We don't want to take a knee-jerk reaction to yesterday's inflation data
He started out by hinting at his thoughts and then just came right out and spelled it out.
