- Impact of Iran war comes as inflation has been high.
- There is more risk of faster shift from oil prices into inflation expectations.
- Risk that series of supply shocks drive up inflation.
- Economy is not creating a lot of jobs right now.
- Bending but not breaking is still how to view jobs market.
- To me it feels like the job market is fragile.
- The job market does not feel robust. Useful to consider different scenarios around Iran war
- Very valuable that long-run inflation expectations are anchored
Paulson's additional comments are balanced with inflation fear high but so is the risk to the job market. Regarding jobs, there tends to be a event that kicks companies into acting together. AI threatened to tip the applecart, but did not. The War in Iran may be the catalyst that starts the job losses beget job losses mentality. No company wants to be the one that does not cut jobs during a weakening economy.
Stocks remain negative with the S&P down -0.90% and the NASDAQ index is down -1.28%.
Yields have come off with the two-year now down -5.6 basis points at 3.928%. The 10 year is still up but only by 0.08% at 4.4238%. The high today reached 4.484%.
Crude oil is surging with the price trading at $98.24. That is up around $3.75.
Bitcoin's moving sharply to the downside and trades at $65,930. The low price today reached $65,677, testing the low price going back to March 8
