- Incoming information broadly supports medium-term outlook that we formed at our previous meeting
- We will continue to follow a data-dependent approach
- Private domestic demand, especially consumption, is likely to remain weak
- Business and consumer confidence have improved but are lower than pre-war
- Manufacturing sector is working through a backlog of orders but prospects worsening
- Government should roll back energy support measures promptly as energy crisis fades
- Price pressures remain strong
- Inflation is still being pushed up but the gradual pass through of previous energy price rises
- Lagarde no longer says growth risks are to the downside
The market is pricing in 43 bps of hiking in September and then coming down afterwards.
