JPMorgan strategists say equities "damage has been done ... fallout is likely still ahead"

I posted earlier on:

Separately from the firm, a slightly different take:

  • "It might be premature to believe that recession is off the table now, when Fed will have done 500bp+ of tightening in a year, and the impact of monetary policy tended to be felt with a lag on the real economy, of as much as 1-2 years"

Markets are unlikely to hit bottom until the Fed ends its aggressive interest-rate hike campaign and begins to cut:

  • "Historically, equities do not typically bottom before the Fed is advanced with cutting, and we never saw a low before the Fed has even stopped hiking"
  • "The damage has been done, and the fallout is likely still ahead of us."
Reuters poll for June on FOMC forecasts. The poll in May only had 8% expecting a cut this year.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Not done yet.

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