Japan metalworkers union seeks bigger wage hikes, reinforcing BOJ rate-hike expectations

  • Renewed wage pressure strengthens the narrative that Japan’s labour market is providing the “initial momentum” Governor Ueda says is necessary for sustainable inflation. Robust union demands into shuntō raise the probability of a December BOJ rate hike, supporting yen upside at the margin while keeping upward pressure on JGB yields. Markets will track how widely these wage requests are adopted across sectors.
Japanese yen currency

Japan’s wage momentum looks set to continue into next year as one of the country’s most influential labour unions prepares to demand salary increases that exceed this year’s record gains.

ICYMI, info publised late Thursday.

The Japan Council of Metalworkers’ Unions (JCM) said it will seek a monthly base-pay hike of at least ¥12,000 in annual spring negotiations, matching last year’s initial request. That round ultimately delivered a rise of ¥10,169, the largest increase since the group began setting targets in 1998.

JCM Chair Akihiro Kaneko said the push reflects a determination to restore real wage growth across unions and narrow the gap between large and smaller firms. JCM’s stance mirrors that of Rengo, the country’s largest labour federation, which last month confirmed it will also pursue wage increases of 5% or more, the same target that underpinned this year’s strong settlements. JCM represents roughly two million workers across major manufacturing employers including Toyota, Panasonic and Nippon Steel.

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The outcome of the shuntō wage talks (early in 2026, Japan's spring time) carries significant weight for financial markets. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly said he needs clear signs that wage gains are becoming self-sustaining ahead of the December 19 policy meeting, a key moment for assessing whether demand-driven inflation justifies a rate hike.

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