Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 45 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 110 bps
- ECB: 2 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 11 bps
- BoE: 6 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 39 bps
- BoC: 25 bps (72% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 36 bps
- RBA: 13 bps (63% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 31 bps
- RBNZ: 20 bps (80% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 37 bps
- SNB: 3 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 7 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 12 bps (77% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 40 bps
*The 2026 pricing reflects the cumulative easing expected by the end of 2026, not how much easing is expected in 2026 alone.
This has been a very dull week given the lack of notable news and a pretty empty calendar. The only notable event was Takaichi's victory as the new Japan's LDP leader which saw the markets paring back expectations for a rate hike by year-end.
