Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 47 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 114 bps
- ECB: 2 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 11 bps
- BoE: 6 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 43 bps
- BoC: 24 bps (56% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 36 bps
- RBA: 15 bps (58% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 35 bps
- RBNZ: 60 bps (57% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting; the rest for a 50 bps cut)
2026: 79 bps
- SNB: 3bps (91% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 7 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 17 bps (65% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 45 bps
*The 2026 pricing reflects the cumulative easing expected by the end of 2026, not how much easing is expected in 2026 alone.
It's been a pretty lacklustre week in terms of news and data releases. The main cause for this is the US government shutdown that's been going since Wednesday. The US government agencies that produce data like Jobless Claims, NFP, CPI, Retail Sales and so on are therefore out of service.
The market might have kind of sensed that a shutdown was very likely and we started to see traders paring back the more hawkish bets we saw last week after strong US data. This week we've been relying on private sector data like the ADP and ISM PMIs. On Wednesday we got a very weak ADP report which saw traders increasing the dovish bets with the year-end pricing going from 41 to 47 bps now and the 2026 pricing going from 103 to 114 bps.
A rate cut in October looks now unavoidable but that was never in question. It's the December and 2026 cuts that might be mispriced. Before the December meeting the Fed will get to see three NFP and two CPI reports.
