Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 8 bps (67% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 94 bps
- ECB: 1 bps (97% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 10 bps
- BoE: 22 bps (83% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 63 bps
- BoC: 4 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 6 bps
- RBA: 2 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 13 bps
- RBNZ: 25 bps (93% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 37 bps
- SNB: 2bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 7 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 7 bps (72% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 43 bps
*The 2026 pricing reflects the cumulative easing expected by the end of 2026, not how much easing is expected in 2026 alone.
This week was all about the Fed rate cut odds repricing. Compared to last week's update here, we can see that a rate cut is now seen as unlikely.
The hawkish repricing has been going on since the last Fed Chair Powell's press conference when he said that "a December cut was not a foregone conclusion - in fact, far from it".
The Fedspeak continued to lean on the hawkish side with all the regional Fed presidents saying that a December rate cut was not their base case and the Governors not giving clear signals for another cut.
The other important catalyst was the BLS announcing that the November NFP report would be released on December 16, which is after the FOMC meeting.
Lastly, we got the September NFP and Jobless Claims data yesterday and, although the data was mixed, it didn't really show clear weakness.
