Rate cuts by year-end
- Fed: 47 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 120 bps
- ECB: 2 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 13 bps
- BoE: 17 bps (65% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 64 bps
- BoC: 30 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 44 bps
- RBA: 23 bps (67% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 46 bps
- RBNZ: 24 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 40 bps
- SNB: 2 bps (92% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 10 bps
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 12 bps (81% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
2026: 43 bps
*The 2026 pricing reflects the cumulative easing expected by the end of 2026, not how much easing is expected in 2026 alone.
It's been a pretty empty week in terms of economic data and newsflow. Nonetheless, we saw some dovish repricing for the BoE and the BoC.
For the BoE, the soft UK CPI report is what triggered the dovish repricing with traders now seeing the December meeting as live for a rate cut.
For the BoC, we got a hot Canadian CPI report that triggered some slightly hawkish repricing but after Trump's termination of negotiations with Canada over an ad (yes, you read that right), the dovish bets returned. As usual though, we can expect this thing to be short-lived and negotiations to restart very soon.
We still have the US CPI coming up later and that could influence expectations greatly. Of course, the bigger the surprise the stronger the repricing will be. Data in line with expectations won't change anything.
