Goldman Sachs warns slowdown risk could trigger deeper Fed easing

  • Goldman’s call strengthens expectations for earlier Fed easing, supporting duration and weighing on the dollar if labour-market cooling accelerates.
Goldman Sachs sized 22 July 2025 2

I posted yesterday on Goldman Sachs expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in December, with several more reductions through 2026

that would take the policy rate to just above 3%.

Adding a little more:

  • Chief economist Jan Hatzius warned the U.S. economy could lose momentum faster than anticipated
  • Could force the Fed to ease more aggressively if downside risks build
  • September added a modest 119,000 jobs, but Goldman highlights rising layoffs as a sign that labour-market softness is becoming more persistent
  • Hatzius said the combination of weaker hiring and elevated layoff activity points to an underlying cooling that may limit the economy’s ability to absorb higher-for-longer rates

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