Goldman Sachs are with most in the market in expecting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to leave the fed Funds rate unchanged at the September meeting.
November is the meeting after this and that one is more complicated for the Fed. GS say that another skip in November would raise the “hurdle for re-starting the cycle”.
Further out though:
“ ... we think Fed officials are unlikely to move quickly into a rate-cutting cycle unless growth slows more than we are forecasting in the coming quarters, and we expect only very gradual cuts of 25bp per quarter starting in 2Q24”
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The September FOMC meeting looks to be a hold, almost certainly (this is the CME 'FedWatch tool'):
While November is still roughly a 60/40 shot:
