Goldman Sachs: Jobs data could decide equity-bond market split

  • Goldman Sachs says equities are pricing in a soft landing with fiscal-driven growth into 2026, while bonds are bracing for labour-market weakness. The split puts extra weight on the jobs report and other key data releases.
Goldman Sachs sized 22 July 2025 2

Goldman Sachs says equity investors appear confident the Federal Reserve can keep cutting interest rates without derailing growth, betting the U.S. economy may even reaccelerate into 2026 thanks to government fiscal support.

By contrast, the bank noted, fixed-income markets are more focused on the risk of a sharp deterioration in employment data. That divergence makes upcoming releases—particularly the jobs report due Friday (Trump permitting) potentially market-moving.

“Going forward, economic data will be critical, with markets likely to react sharply to each print as they assess whether equities or bonds have the correct read on the economy,” Goldman said.

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