TD Securities says this week’s focus is squarely on Wednesday’s Fed meeting, where markets are braced for updated guidance. The bank expects the median dot plot for 2025 to continue signalling two rate cuts, while the 2026 projection is likely to be lowered by 25 basis points.
However, Chair Powell may push back against the market’s increasingly dovish bets:
- TD expects him to disappoint traders hoping for October and December easing, stressing instead that decisions will remain data-dependent
- That stance would leave the dollar better supported in the near term, as the Fed signals patience even with softening labour and inflation data
