The dot plot from Federal Reserve members outlining the projection for rates at the end of 2026, 2027 and 2028. For 2026, the expected end of year rate is at 3.4%, unchanged from Decembers estimate. The end of 2027 rate is also unchanged at 3.1%.
The skew of the projections is more confined with 2.50% to 2.75% as the low and 3.5% to 3.75% remaining at the high. There are more members who see 1 or 0 cuts with 14 in that range currently, and only 5 below that range. In December, only 7 members saw 1 or 2 cuts, while 12 members saw more than one cut in 2026.
The dot plot from the December meeting the Fed Funds projection was for the rate at the end of December to be 3.4%.
Below is the table of economic forecasts for GDP, Unemployment, PCE inflation and Core PCE inflation as of the March 2026 meeting.
Looking at the numbers for 2026 compared to the December, PCE inflation moved up from 2.4% to 2.7% while core PCE also rose from 2.5% to 2.7%.
GDP was increased modestly to 2.4% from 2.3%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%.
For 2027, the expectations are for modestly lower GDP growth at 2.3% (from 2.4%), and modestly lower unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4.4%. The inflation rate is expected to move lower to 2.2%. That is modestly higher than Decembers forecast of 2.1%.
