- Energy prices affect inflation and disposable income
- Higher energy prices hit both sides of the Fed's mandate
- So far the war is showing up in gasoline prices but not yet economic data
- Uncertainty and risks have increased in both directions
- It takes months or even years for energy to work its way through
- Markets are pretty optimistic that oil prices will come back down
- It's too soon for energy to hit jobs market
- Economy is low hire, low fire
- For jobs, the expectation is modest hiring
Fed prices has been static all week at about a 30% chance of a cut in December. Tomorrow's non-farm payrolls could jar that number but the war in Iran is the bigger factor.
