Federal Reserve Governor Waller
- The time has come to move policy to a more neutral stance
- Would support 25 bps cut at Fed’s September meeting
- Waller says he anticipates additional rate cuts over next 3–6 months
- Don’t believe a bigger September cut is needed, unless August jobs report shows substantial weakening and inflation stays well-contained
- Wanted rate cut in July, feels more strongly about it now
- Waller says policy rate is ‘moderately restrictive,’ estimated at 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points above neutral
- Underlying inflation, factoring out temporary effect of tariffs, is close to 2%
- Labor demand is weakening, and that is not good
- Downside risks to labor market have increased
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The Fed next meets on September16 and 17. A rate cut is widely expected despite high inflation. Rate cut bets increased after labour force data was revised lower in the previous NFP.
