Chris Waller
- I'm all in favor of saying 'maybe we should think about cutting at the next meeting'
- Tariffs 'are not going to cause persistent inflation'
- Tariffs will be a one-time factor
- The Fed should not wait for the job market to crash in order to cut rates
- The job market is solid but starting to see things like high unemployment for recent grads
- The Fed has been on pause for six months waiting for an inflation shock that has not arrived
- The Fed has room to bring rates down and then can see what happens with inflation
- The Fed is in a position as early as July for cuts
- Tariffs will not be completely passed through, a 10% tariff on all imports would not have much impact on overall inflation
- I'm not sure if the committee would go along
This is the most-dovish I've ever seen from him. The market was pricing in just a 14% chance of a July 30 rate cut before Waller and it hasn't moved much, which maybe speaks to the "I'm not sure if the committee would go along" comment.
This is more setting Waller up for a rare governor dissent in July rather than a cut.
Quotable: "I’m all in favor of saying maybe we should start thinking about cutting the policy rate at the next meeting, because we don’t want to wait till the job market tanks before we start cutting the policy rate.”
