- Since last Fed meeting available data suggests not much change, inflation not a big problem with labour market weak
- January will be tricky with a flood of data coming to indicate whether another cut is appropriate, need a meeting by meeting approach
- Still do not think labour market will turn around in the next few weeks
- September jobs number likely to be revised down; fact that is was concentrated is not a good sign
- No anecdotal evidence that firms are about to go on a hiring spree
- Inflation has ticked up, but I think it is going to start coming down
- Ex-tariffs inflation is around 2.4 or 2.5%
- I talked to Bessent about 10 days ago, I had another great meeting talking about economics and markets
- I think the administration is looking for someone with experience who knows how to do the job
- Press conferences are important to continue for the sake of clarity and transparency, though there could be changes in how they are organised
Fed's Waller has been dovish since April and it's not surprising for him to advocate for a December cut given his recent comments.
