- Housing sector activity has been weak
- Labor demand has clearly softened
- Other labor indicators have been little changed
- Elevated inflation expectations in near term have risen
- Elevated inflation largely reflects goods, which have been boosted by tariffs
- Long term inflation expectations consistent with 2% inflation goal
- Implications of Middle East are uncertain
- Too soon to know scope and duration of effects on economy
- We are well-positioned
From the Q&A:
- This year is really important to see progress on goods inflation, that's the main thing we're looking for
- Whether we look through energy inflation doesn't arise until we check the box on goods inflation
- Won't approach the question of looking through energy lightly
- There was a movement towards fewer cuts by a number of people
- Progress on tariff inflation should be seen by the middle of the year
- If we don't see inflation progress, you won't see a rate cut
- If we were ever going to skip an SEP, this would be it
- Five years of above-target inflation makes you worry about "trouble" in inflation expectations
- We are very strongly committed to keeping inflation expectations anchored at 2%
- We want to see continued progress on housing services, finally seeing goods inflation come back down, and get help from non-housing services
- Would not say employment is more of a risk than inflation
- Ask why supercore hasn't fallen: It's a puzzle. There are idiosyncratic things, but we're not exactly sure.
- Powell says he hasn't made a decision on staying on as governor. Says he will do what's best for institution
- Won't leave Fed until investigation is "well and truly over"
More to come...
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