- War shocks have increased risks to economy and inflation
- He can see scenarios of both hiking and cutting rates
- Mon pol currently at the low end of neutral (I think he means top of neutral range)
- Supply shocks carry greater inflation risks in current environment
- Tariffs are still inflation driver but should wane
- Says he's cautious about looking through energy shock
- Baseline case is good growth, moderating inflation and stable employment
- Sees unfavorable risks for employment and inflation
- Doesn't see stress from private credit
These comments are very much in-line with the consensus right now. The market is trying to figure out what will happen with the war but futures are pricing in a roughly 30% chance of a rate cut.
