- There have been some positive trends on inflation in recent months but outlook is for a tariff-driven increase
- There is some upside risk to inflation
- The economy is in a good place, with labor market at or near full employment
- It's critical for the Fed to keep long-term inflation expectations anchored
- Could be late this year or early next year for impact of tariffs to be fully felt
- Hiring trends have been softer than usual
- Labor supply seems ot be declining, which may be due to slowed immigration or other factors
- I'm not observing a tremendous amount of restrictiveness due to monetary policy
This doesn't sound like someone in a rush to cut rates.
