- My baseline outlook is economy grows at or above 2%
- Financial conditions are accommodative, there is deregulation and fiscal tailwinds
- Half of excess inflation comes from tariffs, this will fade as the year progresses
- Job market is vulnerable to an increase in layoffs
- Inflation could stay higher for longer but that's not my baseline
- Policy is balancing appropriately
- Policy is now neutral
- Bringing down inflation to target will help with consumption and growth and could lower 10-year rate
- It's important to finish the job on inflation
It sounds like he is willing to cut later in the year but will need to see inflation drop.
