- They are not accounting for the population growth shock due to immigration changes
- There are material consequences to the shift from looser immigration to a net drop in immigration
- AI has a lot of power to drive the economy
- But need to be careful about the precise estimates of its impact
- Economists need to be humble about expectations for AI
- I'm more sanguine about growth than others and still have a lower rate outlook
- My view on rate cuts is based on expectation that neutral is being pushed lower by tax policy, immigration
- Fed needs to be forward-looking about changes that are underway in the economy
- The economy is more vulnerable to downside shocks because Fed policy is too tight
- It is obvious that others on the Fed do not feel the need to move urgently
- There is no material evidence of tariffs-driven inflation
It seems like he's making an early appearance on Fox before speaking to Bloomberg later. The headline remark is no surprise given the voting outcome we've seen last week. As for his overall stance on policy, we all know he's just a puppet put in place so there's not much else to read into whatever he has to say really.
