- Warsh is a fantastic choice to lead the Fed
- Fed needs to cut rates by about a percentage point this year
- Underlying inflation is not a problem
- Market yields haven't gone up by that much
- Better growth in the future doesn't need higher interest rates
- Not reading a lot into metal market volatility
- In the long run, would like a smaller Fed balance sheet
- To get smaller balance sheet we need more regulation changes
- Fed monetary policy is too tight
Fed's Miran argues that the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy is "too tight" for the economic reality on the ground. Despite the cautious stance maintained by most colleagues, Miran believes the Fed needs to be bold this year. Miran proposes a reduction in interest rates by approximately 100 basis points (one percentage point) by year-end.
Dismissing concerns over persistent price pressures, Miran asserts that "underlying inflation is not a problem," suggesting that the path to the 2% target is clearer than markets may realize. One of the more striking aspects of the commentary is the rejection of the idea that robust economic growth necessitates higher borrowing costs.
Miran contends that better future growth does not require high interest rates to keep the economy from "overheating." Furthermore, Miran downplays recent volatility in the metal markets, suggesting these fluctuations are noise rather than a signal of structural shifts or impending inflationary spikes.
Beyond immediate rate decisions, Miran is looking toward the long-term structural footprint of the central bank as he would like a smaller Fed balance sheet. However, Miran notes that "shrinking the pile" isn't as simple as just selling assets. To successfully reduce the balance sheet without triggering liquidity crunches, Miran argues that significant regulatory changes are required.
