Fed's Miran is speaking and says:
- Growth in the 1st half of the year was slower than expected amid uncertainty.
- A lot of uncertainty on economy has lifted.
- There are reasons to be more optimistic going forward on uncertainty lifting.
- If economy does well it doesn't have firm implications for monetary policy.
- Restrictive monetary policy has risks.
- There are risks if monetary policy is an adjusted.
- Monetary policy should be forward-looking giving lags on policy impact.
- Is more sanguine on inflation than others.
- Average rent inflation should moderate
- Easing shelter inflation gives me comfort price pressures will ease.
- Being a data -dependent makes policy look backward. The neutral rate
- The neutral rate not observable but is likely 0.5%.
- AI may be pushing up neutral rate cut but it's unclear if it has so far.
- It is hard to identify asset bubbles
- Market reaction to Fed supports push to aggressively cut rates
- Fed does not need to target long-term rates in normal circumstances
- all economic data needs nuanced interpretation and analysis.
- US government data remains of gold standard despite some issues.
- Important not to manipulate government data for political purposes.
- Optimistic Fed will have needed data by October FOMC, private data doesn't fill gap.
- Insulation of monetary policy from politics is critical.
- Does not see tariffs as a material driver toward inflation
- Does not see the need to change Fed's inflation target.
Stephen I. Miran is currently a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and as such, has a vote at all Fed policy meeting. He was sworn in on September 16, 2025, to fill a vacated seat with a term running through January 31, 2026.
Prior to his appointment, he served as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump. During his confirmation process, Miran announced he would take an unpaid leave from his White House role while serving on the Fed, though the arrangement drew scrutiny over potential conflict-of-interest concerns.
He dissented at the last meeting in favor of a 50 basis point cut (the Fed cup by 25 basis points). His comments today - although more dovish - are at least supportive of an independent Fed, and even more complementary toward the data that is collected. Recall, Pres. Trump fired the head of the BLS after the revisions to the employment data which he did not have faith in.
