- Inflation data is stale and is coming down
- Data since September suggested Fed should be more dovish than its September view.
- Reasonable to be incrementally more dovish.
- Employment data is shown some softness.
- Some of colleagues are looking at backwards looking inflation.
- Policy should be forward-looking.
- I do think that some elements should be leading to more growth in the 1st part of next year
- Nothing is certain fairly new information, but I think 50 basis points would be appropriate but at a minimum 25 basis points.
- If you look at housing it looks like financial conditions are quite tight.
- If tariff inflation were to materialize it is a one off inflation.
- It is not inflation caused by demand outstripping supply, but is just a one off.
- We aren't tasked with tackling inequalities.
- We are not maximum employment
- Unemployment rate is drifting higher, labor market is a softening.
- It is imperative to ease policy.
- IT is incumbent for the Fed to make policy on forecasts for the future.
- Fed chair job is to reflect the views of committee, which is divided
The Fed rate cut projections is for a 64% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December
Miran is a dove and voted for 50 basis points of cuts at the last Fed Meeting. He is a Trump nominee and served as Pres. Trump's Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers prior to being appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
