- It has become hard to judge the underlying growth of the economy
- Labor market conditions mostly stable
- Supported keeping rates stable at current restrictive level, Fed in a good position to deal with change in macro outlook
This is straight out of the Fed choir book. The market is priced for a 45% chance of a cut in July and 81 bps in the year ahead (down from 131 bps three weeks ago).
More:
- If tariffs are long lasting, the one issue I would be looking to is how supply chains get rearranged in the rest of the world
- I'm one of those who believes there could be some permanency on price increases related to tariffs
