There are so many Fed officials telling us that a cut isn't coming in December. The odds are down to 39% and should fall further on this, which is coming from a Fed Governor.
- Still not clear how much data will be ready ahead of Dec 10 meeting
- Current policy still somewhat restrictive
- Balance of risks has shifted in recent months, with increased potential downside to employment
- Upside risks to inflation have likely declined somewhat, with tariff effects likely temporary
- Available info seems consistent with gradual cooling of both labor supply and demand
- Anecdotal reports about the job market have been mixed
The S&P 500 opened 0.3% lower but has trimmed that quickly.
