- Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing
- 25 bps hikes allow the Fed to manage risk
- Fed needs to hike to at least 5% and stay there for some time
- It will take a couple years to get inflation back to 2%
- Expects US jobless rate to peak at 4.5% before ebbing
- Expected rise in unemployment would not be recessionary
This is dovish stuff from Harker but a few more strong data points could change his tune. For now, this is the clearest dismissal of the jobs report to date.
