- At some point next year, Fed to hold at restrictive stance to assess economy
- Rate hikes smaller than 75 bps are still significant
- Inflation 'remains far too high'
- Future hikes will be driven by the data
- Expects unemployment to rise to 4.5% next year
- Expects core PCE to moderate to 4.8% this year
- Sees core inflation at 3.5% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024
- Projects flat GDP this year and 1.5% GDP rise in 2023
Comments like this along with data like CPI will continue to push the market towards pricing in 50 bps in December.
