- Inflation to overshoot target by 1 pp
- It will take 2-3 years to get back to target
- Could be a decade of Fed overshooting target
- Does not put high odds on labor market downturn
- It's not obvious the Fed should cut again given inflation
She's hawkish but that's no surprise.
Given the drop in equity markets today, the odds of a December cut are up to 71%, which is higher than at the start of the week despite the ADP and ISM services data.
