- The jobs report was a tough mess.
- It is just one month but it was not a good month.
- If we get several months like this data, it would be of concern.
- It is hopeful that we see continued progress on inflation.
- Hopeful that we can resume the rate cuts by the end of the year.
- Question is whether inflation rates will be temporary or is it long haul .
- Oil price shocks can lead to stagflationary direction. Stagflation is worst case scenario for banks.
- Reasons we are seeing low hiring, low firing is uncertainty.
- Remains hopeful we will see progress on inflation
- Non-tariff inflation has been disturbingly high
- Disturbing persistance of services inflation
- Wants to get as much information as possible, especially given recent conflicting data
- Everything is on the table at every meeting.
- Strong consumer has been driving US growth.
Policy tone: Slightly dovish / cautious
Open to resuming rate cuts later this year if inflation continues to improve.
Concerned about labor market softness and economic uncertainty.
However, still wary of persistent services inflation and oil-driven inflation risks.
