- Without official data, the Fed will make a decision with the data it has
- The immediate impact of the shutdown will be that federal workers don't get paid on time
- Hopefully the shutdown ends soon
A bunch of Fed members are planting the seeds for a pushback on the 100bps of easing that's priced into the curve in the next year. I think it all comes to a head in December, particularly if equity markets continue to hit record highs.
