Fed moved too slowly to combat inflation in pandemic
There's a lot of blame to go around for pandemic inflation surge
Services inflation not yet under control
Best thing about recent inflation data shows possible waning of tariff impact
Expects to see Fed rate cuts this year, but needs data to affirm outlook
Rates can still go down a fair amount but need firm evidence of inflation retreat
The most important thing facing Fed is need to get inflation back to 2%
There is still strength in jobs and overall growth is good
Data points to stability in job market
I'm not surprised by low claims data
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated in a CNBC interview that while several interest rate cuts remain possible this year, the central bank requires further "tangible" evidence that inflation is sustainably returning to its 2% target. While he noted progress in recent consumer price data—partially attributing some cooling to the waning impact of tariffs—he warned that services inflation remains "not tamed". Goolsbee remains optimistic about the economy's resilience, pointing to a stable job market and surprising strength in recent employment data as factors that allow the Fed to wait for more definitive inflation reports before easing policy further.
The market and the Fed is in data-watching mode right now but the market doesn't see a cut in either March or April with the June meeting rising to just above 50%.
