- Most of labour market indicators show stability in market
- We should be careful taking payroll job number drop as an indicator of job market (unemployment rate is a better indicator now)
- Mild cooling in labour market
- The unemployment rate is basically unchanged
- There's a little downside risk to the labor market
- There's a lot of stability
- Recession starts are not usually low hiring and low firing
- Low hiring and low firing is character of an uncertain environment
- There's very little private sector information about inflation, it will be some time before we see any problems
- We can't count on inflation being transitory
- Consumer spending and growth is strong
- I am more uneasy about rate cuts without inflation data
- For data to go dark right at the moment we saw services inflation rising is uncomfortable
- Not hawkish on rates
- The settling point for rates will be a fair bit below where it is today
- I lean more to "when it's foggy lets be careful and slow down"
- Lack of inflation data accentuates caution on rate cuts
Goolsbee has been leaning more on the hawkish side for months despite supporting a couple of rate cuts due to the weakness in labour market data (when we had it).
Goolsbee is a voter this year and he's clearly saying here that if we don't get the CPI data before the next FOMC meeting, he won't support another rate cut.
