Fed's Goolsbee
- 2023 was a 'hall of fame' year on inflation reduction
- Overall CPI inflation in Dec was pretty close to what was expected
- Housing inflation was a little less favorable than expected
- Persistently high shelter inflation CPI may have less implication for Fed's personal consumption expenditures target
- Inflation will be the primary determinant of when and how much interest rates should be cut
- The Fed still has weeks and months of data to come
- Can't answer the question of what we'll do at March meeting without data
- Fed so far is on golden path, though it could be derailed
- Unlike a year ago, the risks to golden path are on both sides
- Risks include persistent housing inflation, potential supply shocks
If you would have given me the CPI numbers and today's schedule of speakers, I probably would have expected something more hawkish. But all three of them have been dismissive of the higher inflation.
