- Fed needs to guard against inflation risks
- But should not ignore possibility of productivity boom and faster non-inflationary growth
- Tariff-driven price increases not spilling over into broader inflation
- The balance of risks has shifted as the labour market has softened
- Inflation has declined but remains elevated
- Policy remains modestly restrictive, economy has been resilient this year
There's nothing new in her commentary with it still being a bit of a toss up for the Fed in deciding for December. But now with the US government shutdown set to end soon, economic data could further expose labour market vulnerabilities and reaffirm odds for another cut next month.
