In a Wall Street Journal interview, Fed's Daly supports a 25 basis point rate cut in December.
Daly says she supports cutting rates at the December meeting due to rising risks of a sudden labor-market deterioration.
Warns the job market is “vulnerable” and could have a nonlinear downturn, which she sees as harder to manage than an inflation flare-up.
Says tariff-related inflation pressures have been more muted than expected, reducing the risk of an inflation breakout.
Daly rarely diverges from Powell publicly, making her stance notable as the committee remains divided.
Still believes the Fed can return inflation to 2% without higher unemployment—and that failing to do so would be a policy failure.
Notes the economy has been in a “low-hiring, low-firing” equilibrium, but warns it is fragile and could break negatively if layoffs rise or output slows.
Based on recent comments, 3 of 7 Fed governors are leaning toward a cut. 3 are unclear while 1 is favoring a pause. Of the voting Presidents, 1 is in favor of a cut (near Fed Pres. Williams), while 4 are favoring a pause. That would imply 4 voting for a cut and 5 voting for a pause with 3 voting members unclear including the Fed chair Powell.
The market is pricing in a 19 basis points of easing/76% chance of a cut.
Board of Governors (all vote):
Powell: Unclear
Jefferson: Unclear
Bowman: Cut
Barr: Pause
Cook: Unclear
Miran: Cut
Waller: Cut
Voting Reserve Bank Presidents:
Williams (NY): Cut
Collins (Boston): Pause
Goolsbee (Chicago): Pause
Musalem (St. Louis): Pause
Schmid (Kansas City): Pause
Looking at the nonvoting presidents, Feds Hammack is the most hawkish. There are 4 who are in favor of a pause while 2 are in favor of cutting. Fed's Barkin is unsure.
Hammack (Cleveland): Pause
Kashkari (Minneapolis): Pause
Logan (Dallas): Pause
Paulson (Philadelphia): Cut
Daly (San Francisco): Cut
Bostic (Atlanta): Pause
Barkin (Richmond): Unclear
