- Supported the recent Fed rate cut given risks to Fed mandates
- Modestly restrictive monetary policy appropriate due to inflation
- While inflation threat remains, upside risks to price pressures have waned
- I can't rule out worse outlooks for inflation, job market
- Baseline outlook is relatively benign
- I expect hiring to rebound once firms acclimate to tariffs
- Inflation elevated into next year, then should ease
- Risk labor demand could ebb and push up unemployment
- Economic growth has been resilient amid a softer job market
- It may be appropriate to ease a bit further in 2025
- Inflation risks remain and Fed should focus on both sides of the mandate
- Fed did not lay out preset path at September FOMC
- Reading economy is complicated right now
- Expect tariffs to feed through but see smaller impact
- Aware that long periods of high inflation can shift psychology
- Healthy for Fed officials to show a range of views
- Concerns about labour market fragility have increased
- Households still worried about inflation pressures
- Productivity growth might help limit tariff inflation
- AI is a general purpose technology with potential broad based impacts
- AI will be disruptive but it's hard to say how
- Fed independence is essential
- September FOMC meeting debate was data driven and analytic
- Strong equity markets boost household wealth and have buoyed consumption
This reads like her supporting the baseline of two more rate cuts in 2025. So I would put her in the neutral camp. Again, the focus remains on the labour market data as that what pushed the Fed to start cutting rates in September and projected two more in 2025. An October cut might be unavoidable unless we get very hot NFP and CPI data, but the December cut could come into question if the US data continues to surprise to the upside in the next weeks and months.
