- Recent data has increased the top range or where I think rates need to get to
- Service sector inflation is still very high
- Not seeing clear and consistent evidence of softening of labor markets
- We need a holistic look at the data and that says we still have more to do
- Interest-rate sensitive sectors have responded to Fed, other areas not yet
- I do not see clear significant evidence that inflation is coming down
- Service sector inflation still very week
- 75 basis points is still on the table
- There's a risk that as we raise rates, we may go too far
- I am reasonably optimistic that we can avoid recession
This is very much in line with what Powell has been saying.
