- US economy will continue to grow above trend this year and next, labor markets will continue to improve further
- We've seen these kinds of oil prices before and it didn't cause a recession in the US
- It could easily be that Europe is pulled into a recession as a result of the war
- Direct macro economic impacts on US economy aren't that large
- War will mean less globalization and more fragmentation
I really worry about the outlook for Europe. Gas prices there have come back from the latest (insane) peaks but were up 14% again today and with orders to fill the tanks by October, they're not coming down. Those costs will be crippling for industry in Europe and once fiscal rules are put back in place, there will be some major austerity.
