There's a real derby from the old Fed hawks to turn into doves just as Trump gets set to pick a new Fed chair.
- Open to cutting rates as soon as July if inflation pressures stay contained
- Should put more weight on downside risks to jobs market going forward
- Trade policy only likely to have 'minimal impacts' on inflation
- Data not showing much impact from trade policy shifts
- Government policy changes should lower inflation risks
- Progress on trade has lowered uncertainty over outlook
- Labor market solid but signs of softness emerging
- Conflict in Middle East could lead to higher commodity prices
The implied odds of a July cut are up to 23% from 15% after Waller.
This is shamelessly political, but I guess everything is now.
