- The revisions show that the the labor market is slowing down
- I saw that the risk to inflation is greater than the risk to employment.
- The risk to the employment side may becoming more in balance to the inflation side
- does not think jobs data would have changed this week's FOMC decision.
- In many ways job market still looks good.
- I still am not hearing from businesses that there on the verge of letting go a lot of people.
- I do think with new information it's appropriate to reevaluate
- For today, still expected one cut this year.
- Need to see how things evolve over coming months.
- Tariffs being in the psychology of the consumer for a much longer time period.
- Tariffs are not rolling out like textbook examples.
- If the tariffs are successful, Fed can't just look through them.
- Will take a while for firms to price for tariff rise.
- We are in a very difficult environment now.
- Do raise the salient to the employment side, but we can't ignore risks on the other side (inflation).
- There are risks on both sides of Fed's mandate
- Active debate on how restrictive Fed policy is right now
By topic:
Labor Market
The revisions show that the labor market is slowing down
In many ways, job market still looks good
I still am not hearing from businesses that they're on the verge of letting go a lot of people
Does not think jobs data would have changed this week's FOMC decision
Do raise the salient to the employment side, but we can't ignore risks on the other side (inflation)
The risk to the employment side may be becoming more in balance to the inflation side
Inflation & Risks
I saw that the risk to inflation is greater than the risk to employment
There are risks on both sides of Fed's mandate
Tariffs are not rolling out like textbook examples
If the tariffs are successful, Fed can't just look through them
We are in a very difficult environment now
Tariffs & Consumer Behavior
Tariffs being in the psychology of the consumer for a much longer time period
Will take a while for firms to price for tariff rise
Policy & Outlook
For today, still expected one cut this year
Need to see how things evolve over coming months
Active debate on how restrictive Fed policy is right now
I do think with new information it's appropriate to reevaluat