Barkin is a good barometer for the core of the Fed:
- Inflation is above target but isn't likely to increase due to consumer push-back and productivity increases
- Job growth is down but labor supply is also slowing
- There is a lot to learn between now and Dec 10 Fed meeting
- It's hard to declare victory on either mandate but it's also not clear that either requires a response
- Inflation is above target but not likely to accelerate
- Without compelling data, it's hard to get a broad consensus
- The upside of more consensus is the ability of markets to set expectations
- Policy is still modestly restrictive
The market is back to nearly 50/50 for the December meeting after falling to 38% yesterday. That was mostly after Waller aggressively called for a cut, saying there was no data between then and now that could change his mind.
